{"id":"W2908267360","doi":"10.1017/s000712341800042x","title":"Are Transfer-Dependent Governments More Creditworthy? Reassessing the Fiscal Federal Foundations of Subnational Default Risk","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"British Journal of Political Science","topic":"Local Government Finance and Decentralization","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":10,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Queen's University","funders":"","keywords":"Bailout; Transfer payment; Economics; Probability of default; Revenue; Payment; Business; Financial system; Monetary economics; Finance; Credit risk; Macroeconomics; Financial crisis; Market economy","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["sts"],"consensus_categories":["sts"],"category_scores_codex":[0.001901398,0.00007194038,0.0001460054,0.00003668388,0.001507481,0.0003835339,0.0005278435,0.00005550713,0.0001425576],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002462254,0.00006166318,0.00009409619,0.0004573422,0.002799692,0.000887454,0.00004375235,0.0001880159,0.000004495145],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005026426,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006206261,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002372921,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002175719,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9961908,0.000160421,0.0004362406,0.0001578272,0.002502744,0.000551973],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9984373,0.0001880221,0.0003175712,0.00008568982,0.0006699136,0.000301527],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00007370886,0.0005650628,0.3209025,0.00001379055,0.00004744918,0.00007929661,0.00243072,0.00009362584,0.000604759,0.6501967,0.002099588,0.02289283],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003667477,0.00007040222,0.9821721,0.0001428024,0.00003191836,0.0000664287,0.003092024,0.0002648336,0.0005729819,0.01159193,0.001528571,0.00009923118],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9718875,0.00008543375,0.01761703,0.003113686,0.0006605129,0.0001149846,0.00006900479,0.000008551847,0.00644335],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.998455,0.00009978258,0.0002537101,0.0003596917,0.0007158635,0.000001242317,7.489799e-7,0.00000454986,0.0001093992],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6612697,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999141,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02467942309355771,"score_gpt":0.3305317794635554,"score_spread":0.3058523563699977,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}