{"id":"W2908357711","doi":"10.3390/jrfm12010005","title":"The Role of Economic Uncertainty in UK Stock Returns","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of risk and financial management","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":23,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Stock (firearms); Econometrics; Autoregressive model; Predictive power; Inflation (cosmology); Financial economics; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001368851,0.00008075918,0.000305098,0.0001516362,0.00004667498,0.00002891895,0.0001840008,0.00004559197,0.00004818729],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00004647773,0.00006695312,0.00009978978,0.00008122214,0.00003255589,0.00007283568,0.00007010991,0.0001668433,0.000006537477],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00007837655,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001497863,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002796168,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0004198175,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989755,0.00001879654,0.0007006915,0.0001272533,0.00003325033,0.0001444811],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9990231,0.00007569777,0.0006780716,0.0001755865,0.00001426261,0.00003323738],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001346093,0.00002884951,0.8389441,0.00001633027,0.00001807444,0.000001720126,0.0002331882,0.0002322611,6.45453e-7,0.1152302,0.00007616696,0.04508389],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0006810686,0.0001031838,0.6865911,0.00002316042,0.000007744069,0.000001413122,0.0002049072,0.01459374,0.000001174686,0.2141755,0.08352645,0.0000905827],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9859364,0.002511695,0.0003319785,0.00006176942,0.000406074,0.0001563385,0.00003108564,0.000001183266,0.01056346],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9950234,0.004581953,0.0001341998,0.00001511196,0.00004791556,0.000001803324,5.768712e-7,0.00000506719,0.0001900092],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.152353,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2730269,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.005844966782575373,"score_gpt":0.1928780950552799,"score_spread":0.1870331282727045,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}