{"id":"W2910035100","doi":"10.1214/19-aap1540","title":"Conditional Optimal Stopping: A Time-Inconsistent Optimization","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"The Annals of Applied Probability","topic":"Economic theories and models","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"National Science Foundation","keywords":"Optimal stopping; Uniqueness; Stochastic game; Bounded function; Stopping time; Conditional probability; Optional stopping theorem; Mathematical economics; Event (particle physics); Time horizon; Discrete time and continuous time; Optimal control; Mathematics; Mathematical optimization; Conditional expectation; Computer science; Physics; Econometrics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.009693671,0.001292991,0.003189189,0.001657539,0.001135018,0.004114882,0.003059051,0.004769314,0.005444104],"category_scores_gemma":[0.04440269,0.001808937,0.001980203,0.001832618,0.003793293,0.005823283,0.003157621,0.006282961,0.0004448194],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00249919,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.004157892,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003135299,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002149881,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9947262,0.003142572,0.0002270675,0.0009251009,0.0006374493,0.0003415429],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9736908,0.0208025,0.001804248,0.001052371,0.001546017,0.001104166],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001653444,0.00007784874,0.0008285344,0.0001530328,0.0001386254,0.000161711,0.0001127918,0.1106484,0.0005048427,0.875389,0.004721882,0.007097804],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00004063916,0.00002092884,0.0001889371,0.00003484136,0.0000318364,0.00004133448,0.00001503949,0.4826147,0.0001414012,0.5160139,0.0008350786,0.0000215405],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.03273495,0.00155088,0.9509776,0.005524233,0.0003362139,0.00004272865,0.0002953616,0.0001686702,0.008369343],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.7081988,0.002220008,0.2548777,0.001852533,0.001336826,0.000373553,0.0009853635,0.000685986,0.02946929],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.009693671,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.0512656,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1078717276024866,"score_gpt":0.2644861972872913,"score_spread":0.1566144696848047,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}