{"id":"W2913497441","doi":"10.25949/19432814","title":"Forecasting exchange rate based on macroeconomic variables: a GVAR approach","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"dissertation","venue":"Figshare","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Exchange rate; Economics; Econometrics; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0009691202,0.0005649522,0.0007077961,0.001269441,0.0001858924,0.001377174,0.0005010489,0.0006694685,0.001120745],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002189911,0.0002190827,0.0007540743,0.001111696,0.0001571273,0.0009383042,0.000432845,0.0009898748,0.0006071031],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002442605,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002878738,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003239095,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002325772,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997026,0.0001248912,0.00001575117,0.00008702886,0.000042123,0.00002759213],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9995061,0.0003009449,0.00008530544,0.00003779851,0.00005441075,0.00001542832],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001607414,0.0001468985,0.04713157,0.000113863,0.0003540234,0.0003120429,0.0001716747,0.7980352,0.002519253,0.01492537,0.00240085,0.1337284],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00000612469,0.00003380216,0.004608781,0.00001201898,0.0000318631,0.00002923403,0.00003183837,0.9920013,0.0003410015,0.002141371,0.0007527127,0.000009943476],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.599663,0.003513447,0.3827251,0.00121493,0.0003053759,0.00006788962,0.001242166,0.0006808949,0.01058723],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9441345,0.002125028,0.04892674,0.00009433927,0.0002091813,0.00003807545,0.001601183,0.00005541162,0.002815383],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.003239095,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.006440461,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1403936164314522,"score_gpt":0.237857996081463,"score_spread":0.09746437965001084,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}