{"id":"W2913936976","doi":"10.21814/perspectivas.100","title":"The Unfinished Presidencies: Why Incumbent Presidents May Lose Their Re-Election Bids","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Perspectivas - Journal of Political Science","topic":"American Political and Social Dynamics","field":"Arts and Humanities","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of New Brunswick","funders":"","keywords":"Presidency; Nomination; Presidential system; Presidential election; Political science; Politics; Government (linguistics); Public administration; Divided government; Political economy; Law; Law and economics; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["sts"],"consensus_categories":["sts"],"category_scores_codex":[0.001163364,0.0001702681,0.000241205,0.0001300719,0.001916216,0.0006602902,0.0008037608,0.00004338881,0.00054599],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001840231,0.0000968742,0.0001738212,0.0002382749,0.009587349,0.000649064,0.0001499896,0.0003560741,0.00004130129],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006198177,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000636044,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003736041,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001014201,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9971782,0.000139577,0.0004697846,0.0002395574,0.0009148694,0.001058008],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.997278,0.0004793094,0.0002120889,0.0002334768,0.0012325,0.0005646336],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003354554,0.00007973897,0.0003067902,0.000003577891,0.00002377881,0.000004148663,0.01060869,5.877326e-7,0.0001522563,0.9859993,0.002413733,0.0003738232],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000656007,0.002647531,0.0271716,0.0001420419,0.0001136616,0.0001265461,0.1231974,0.001045582,0.002423575,0.7549568,0.08689164,0.0006275609],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6957524,0.0002257465,0.000787764,0.02673089,0.002571687,0.0002605351,0.0000249942,0.00006829905,0.2735776],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9937377,0.00002723227,0.00005876249,0.001145007,0.003026444,0.000002698727,1.50748e-7,0.00001273028,0.001989297],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2979852,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9993832,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02569418759337352,"score_gpt":0.2958415908808649,"score_spread":0.2701474032874914,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}