{"id":"W2921006411","doi":"10.3390/jrfm12020085","title":"Optimism in Financial Markets: Stock Market Returns and Investor Sentiments","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of risk and financial management","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":38,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Predictability; Stock market; Stock (firearms); Economics; Financial economics; Spillover effect; Financial market; Stock market bubble; Monetary economics; Business; Finance; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001279697,0.0002469672,0.0006369863,0.0005685332,0.00009428952,0.0001099701,0.0002024915,0.0001415697,0.0002148635],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000156391,0.0002519107,0.0001169471,0.000277921,0.00008610229,0.0005106677,0.0001569246,0.0003495768,0.00002205834],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00009141098,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00003347375,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00006679876,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00002368428,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998145,0.00004650659,0.0009861537,0.0003632373,0.0001043918,0.0003547462],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.998836,0.00005383774,0.0007489278,0.0002042224,0.00003435271,0.0001226292],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0008806682,0.0003828103,0.7287904,0.0004281422,0.00007286896,0.0001883236,0.001231283,0.00003919356,0.000008027004,0.2108525,0.02305069,0.03407504],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002070118,0.000257821,0.8115537,0.0001141156,0.0000227359,0.00001347259,0.000132625,0.0001816395,0.000003009007,0.0394487,0.1459152,0.0002868524],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9676114,0.00490037,0.000593824,0.0002432253,0.001105099,0.0004241426,0.00005499491,0.000009134283,0.02505781],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9796742,0.01498573,0.002623414,0.0005197686,0.0001955281,0.00001142184,0.000002461744,0.00002547634,0.001962052],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1714038,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999933,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01073778295894379,"score_gpt":0.1934861437371476,"score_spread":0.1827483607782038,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}