{"id":"W2922179265","doi":"10.34989/san-2016-10","title":"The Case of Serial Disappointment","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Staff Analytical Notes","topic":"Canadian Policy and Governance","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Disappointment; Contrast (vision); Economics; Real gross domestic product; Econometrics; Monetary economics; Psychology; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0001961349,0.00004115605,0.00008346208,0.000007749622,0.0003037339,0.00004209277,0.00008243797,0.00003366563,0.0002262232],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001367937,0.00003090506,0.00006855648,0.0001924304,0.0004025153,0.00003604876,0.00002606612,0.00004880478,0.000008932874],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0000570675,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000388343,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.06956,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.2721359,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9993702,0.00008305638,0.000117536,0.00009474633,0.0001296326,0.0002048627],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9991481,0.0004929084,0.00003462268,0.0001389146,0.00006321855,0.0001222815],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001156794,0.00004459772,0.000106522,0.000004085516,0.00002800778,0.0004759077,0.001432431,0.00001818532,0.00003995759,0.9885002,0.004976492,0.004362032],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0007466276,0.000183291,0.0008743379,0.00003851441,0.0001767297,0.0001605615,0.01499543,0.003008433,0.002870219,0.09787409,0.8786295,0.000442238],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9361807,0.0002843822,0.0001545559,0.04291753,0.0002901405,0.0001099981,0.0002458938,0.00001376166,0.01980308],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9973677,0.00005685438,0.00008978197,0.0001580954,0.000245186,9.752727e-7,6.714687e-7,0.000002923465,0.002077787],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.8906261,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9366359,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02405240166608901,"score_gpt":0.3282709663074266,"score_spread":0.3042185646413376,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}