{"id":"W2922533236","doi":"10.1007/s42519-021-00186-z","title":"Predicting the Scoring Time in Hockey","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice","topic":"Sports Analytics and Performance","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Brock University","funders":"","keywords":"Frequentist inference; Estimator; Statistics; League; Bayesian probability; Computer science; Mathematics; Econometrics; Bayesian inference","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00910955,0.0001373386,0.0004879874,0.0001230178,0.00008634481,0.0002651052,0.0001994042,0.0001203874,0.0007582181],"category_scores_gemma":[0.006157661,0.0001102928,0.00007645257,0.000100977,0.00009226472,0.0003342889,0.0001954816,0.001230222,0.00002414828],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00004835452,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00008240358,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00006505227,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000003175172,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998394,0.000196391,0.000955462,0.0002052746,0.000076727,0.0001721577],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9942217,0.00414746,0.001256232,0.0001939891,0.0001009905,0.00007963848],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0007625386,0.0002048257,0.01713795,0.0002345877,0.0004050987,0.0006054136,0.003046212,0.003577629,0.000005999984,0.9687624,0.0005757548,0.004681607],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001133138,0.000320846,0.06544666,0.001037475,0.0003250907,0.001328618,0.00405486,0.0383683,0.0000126307,0.836074,0.05117456,0.0007238589],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6975299,0.04807673,0.1613114,0.007223773,0.003630002,0.0004537366,0.0004932496,0.00001731478,0.08126388],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9893536,0.005845128,0.00347161,0.0005022897,0.0004129251,0.000002320405,0.000006972599,0.00001769769,0.0003874805],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2918237,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8301956,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03618267296521941,"score_gpt":0.287187216094672,"score_spread":0.2510045431294526,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}