{"id":"W2923663112","doi":"10.1002/acp.3550","title":"The “analysis of competing hypotheses” in intelligence analysis","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Applied Cognitive Psychology","topic":"Intelligence, Security, War Strategy","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":54,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Occupational Cancer Research Centre; Defence Research and Development Canada","funders":"Ministère de la Défense Nationale; Government of the United Kingdom","keywords":"Judgement; Psychology; Intelligence analysis; Probabilistic logic; Task (project management); Cognition; Cognitive psychology; Cognitive bias; Statistical evidence; Clinical judgement; Social psychology; Artificial intelligence; Computer science; Econometrics; Epistemology; Computer security; Psychiatry","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001990967,0.0001573524,0.0005460276,0.0007834545,0.0002200342,0.0000408775,0.0005280961,0.0001712086,0.0009217196],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002649729,0.0001356462,0.0002638847,0.006191869,0.0009053341,0.00004908147,0.00006268726,0.0003079051,0.0002900006],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00004811601,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000070314,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001442041,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01569424,"domain_scores_codex":[0.997569,0.0004586833,0.0005584025,0.0005120134,0.0003720986,0.0005298523],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9964157,0.002645343,0.0002964687,0.000332312,0.0002437976,0.00006635118],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003001747,0.0003286533,0.1806237,0.000009036477,0.005707709,0.0000108836,0.03130035,0.0005913964,0.0005294346,0.7090127,0.00001906802,0.07156693],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0007422092,0.0002387446,0.6335182,0.00004812619,0.007069305,0.000001660871,0.2391974,0.002731374,0.002710095,0.1069676,0.005564919,0.001210376],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.5877502,0.0001595653,0.004203232,0.000287759,0.0001658549,0.00043589,0.00001298452,0.00002684791,0.4069577],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9989721,0.0002636323,0.00008890493,0.0003832175,0.00003557548,0.00004336416,0.00001216926,0.000009683343,0.0001913064],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6020451,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999916,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03628122052694044,"score_gpt":0.3832323280536613,"score_spread":0.3469511075267209,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}