{"id":"W2923663112","doi":"10.1002/acp.3550","title":"The “analysis of competing hypotheses” in intelligence analysis","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Applied Cognitive Psychology","topic":"Intelligence, Security, War Strategy","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":54,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Occupational Cancer Research Centre; Defence Research and Development Canada","funders":"Ministère de la Défense Nationale; Government of the United Kingdom","keywords":"Judgement; Psychology; Intelligence analysis; Probabilistic logic; Task (project management); Cognition; Cognitive psychology; Cognitive bias; Statistical evidence; Clinical judgement; Social psychology; Artificial intelligence; Computer science; Econometrics; Epistemology; Computer security; Psychiatry","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":["metaresearch"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.4488445,0.002464213,0.004329501,0.00996156,0.004196738,0.009248519,0.00689218,0.002648152,0.00476804],"category_scores_gemma":[0.6978157,0.001550263,0.005232693,0.008319235,0.02145744,0.009374874,0.007652338,0.0127378,0.0005199279],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.005416735,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0121996,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002775753,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003054371,"domain_scores_codex":[0.2732977,0.6792843,0.01362654,0.008151589,0.02472077,0.0009191771],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.04965203,0.9037924,0.01653961,0.01902416,0.01028147,0.0007103265],"domain_codex":"methods","domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001439105,0.0006323238,0.03707549,0.00887812,0.006045706,0.0007928546,0.01735599,0.01590158,0.002118211,0.4133734,0.01596018,0.4804271],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002659103,0.0008995327,0.009803188,0.002753883,0.0009672787,0.0007216677,0.004425528,0.08657525,0.003644279,0.8715213,0.01803898,0.0003832266],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.02932268,0.003400488,0.949161,0.007782253,0.0009855428,0.002808103,0.0003193457,0.0005354492,0.005685206],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.1972519,0.0006039821,0.7974501,0.00104979,0.0004424563,0.002572595,0.0001363863,0.0000890567,0.0004037202],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.4488445,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.6796728,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03628122052694044,"score_gpt":0.3832323280536613,"score_spread":0.3469511075267209,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}