{"id":"W2923854832","doi":"10.34989/san-2016-11","title":"Low for Longer? Why the Global Oil Market in 2014 Is Not Like 1986","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Staff Analytical Notes","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Oil price; Falling (accident); Crash; Economics; Agricultural economics; Monetary economics; Psychology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007888009,0.0001705782,0.0004201931,0.00005661483,0.00008793396,0.0001223836,0.0002518424,0.0001347069,0.002160909],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0006985059,0.0001563831,0.0002521651,0.0003617708,0.0001024002,0.00009029984,0.0001159983,0.0001551107,0.00004616078],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001430761,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00005896083,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.000338095,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0009610603,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9984136,0.0000336359,0.0005576938,0.0005271744,0.00006113607,0.0004068211],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9987096,0.0004861738,0.0001171563,0.0005104889,0.00007054332,0.0001060901],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003989344,0.001051137,0.6615391,0.0003287511,0.0003044064,0.0000393778,0.0002214631,0.0001046451,0.000006089164,0.2978794,0.02884196,0.009284725],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0005994887,0.00005360656,0.02881394,0.00001689777,0.00001860321,0.000002958235,0.00004994245,0.8301393,0.00001500682,0.08089182,0.05909889,0.0002995218],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.874016,0.001710175,0.02742635,0.02489185,0.001029762,0.0003893436,0.004570072,0.00005360838,0.06591287],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9951389,0.0001960849,0.0009631346,0.001765468,0.0001061165,0.00001387853,0.00002583367,0.00001686965,0.001773746],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.8300347,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9987512,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02506349472509833,"score_gpt":0.2536413643577204,"score_spread":0.2285778696326221,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}