{"id":"W2933619517","doi":"10.1029/2018jg004644","title":"Modeling Climate Change Impacts on an Arctic Polygonal Tundra: 1. Rates of Permafrost Thaw Depend on Changes in Vegetation and Drainage","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences","topic":"Climate change and permafrost","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":30,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Alberta","funders":"Biological and Environmental Research; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Office of Science; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Western Canada Research Grid; Compute Canada; U.S. Department of Energy","keywords":"Tundra; Permafrost; Environmental science; Evapotranspiration; Climate change; Vegetation (pathology); Transpiration; Atmospheric sciences; Soil water; Global warming; Precipitation; Hydrology (agriculture); Arctic; Soil science; Ecology; Geology; Chemistry; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004171846,0.0005177514,0.0003463987,0.0003765937,0.0006228556,0.0009575069,0.0008451206,0.0009448719,0.001209379],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0009108863,0.0003727851,0.0007578878,0.0003872747,0.0005031281,0.0005053176,0.0004237609,0.0004583753,0.0001095805],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001938674,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001054306,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.1647821,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.1148746,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998475,0.00004776703,0.000009457246,0.00004097312,0.0000147212,0.00003952944],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9996603,0.000132364,0.00006412325,0.00002938437,0.00005254216,0.00006129606],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001282233,0.00008283851,0.06628546,0.0000203963,0.000127755,0.0001293173,0.00005234569,0.9293388,0.001664348,0.0002401194,0.0001386764,0.001791673],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003568155,0.00008130092,0.02734474,0.000006682821,0.00005487614,0.00002619044,0.0001052015,0.9711546,0.0006951262,0.0001431661,0.0003379741,0.00001449324],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9983909,0.00002943524,0.0005433607,0.00004779881,0.000006175414,0.000007816332,0.0002031652,0.00002678985,0.0007445441],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9990133,0.00002879598,0.0005633738,0.0000136619,0.000003207362,0.000007807433,0.0001239485,0.000006176117,0.0002396942],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1647821,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.327646,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1057256466569071,"score_gpt":0.3570855557841809,"score_spread":0.2513599091272738,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}