{"id":"W2946825906","doi":"10.3386/w21202","title":"Insurgency and Small Wars: Estimation of Unobserved Coalition Structures","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Insurgency; Estimation; Econometrics; Political science; Computer science; Economics; Law; Management; Politics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004436072,0.0005128522,0.0006968384,0.002111318,0.0009628343,0.001472692,0.001124008,0.0008631007,0.002089977],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03299381,0.0005023509,0.0008220875,0.002152571,0.001293247,0.001217046,0.001772754,0.001433273,0.000215619],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0009752166,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001345886,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02628546,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.02109807,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9975924,0.0014981,0.00008975569,0.0004399195,0.0001555771,0.0002241697],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.973927,0.01960717,0.003636091,0.001791735,0.0003320648,0.0007060507],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003147815,0.0003369343,0.8395312,0.00006829545,0.0006138199,0.0002251154,0.0009447544,0.0977138,0.0002487109,0.01659927,0.001221824,0.04218156],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00007682342,0.0001541866,0.1956013,0.00003923595,0.0001099711,0.0001154712,0.001282252,0.7757874,0.0003200045,0.02502778,0.001444289,0.00004124979],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9591701,0.0001591542,0.03915016,0.000325245,0.00001159814,0.00005833448,0.0005032588,0.00003514383,0.0005870514],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9906303,0.00008972183,0.008250302,0.00001520644,0.00001560957,0.00003602581,0.0006741834,0.000003461829,0.0002851395],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02628546,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05226493,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4966032647647553,"score_gpt":0.5345570040116228,"score_spread":0.03795373924686746,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}