{"id":"W2951521963","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2953963","title":"Evaluating Strategic Forecasters","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Auction Theory and Applications","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Business","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.007174161,0.0009283017,0.0009138746,0.002195001,0.0005302007,0.004564337,0.0005430608,0.001832054,0.005613282],"category_scores_gemma":[0.05231732,0.0003681387,0.0004058561,0.001131967,0.0007262255,0.00400948,0.0008275507,0.00104066,0.00103142],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001299314,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001423755,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002001053,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002596217,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9972852,0.001232399,0.0001597071,0.0003460564,0.0007214333,0.0002551957],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9792354,0.01467556,0.001926266,0.000883158,0.002537738,0.0007419138],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.002048057,0.0003463503,0.1008968,0.0002198333,0.0004811862,0.0004469576,0.0005234734,0.4688411,0.002847331,0.1016092,0.01483505,0.3069045],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00007666552,0.0005687106,0.01016497,0.00007454689,0.0001313066,0.0001013199,0.0005494922,0.8936284,0.002897913,0.08865406,0.003101374,0.00005140325],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7984108,0.002047743,0.1512926,0.005303083,0.0005716332,0.0001204514,0.0005213093,0.0004066137,0.04132578],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9876665,0.0002682577,0.008588259,0.00006982342,0.0001203195,0.000018404,0.0002360463,0.00001546764,0.003016927],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.007174161,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03794104,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3029690398647003,"score_gpt":0.4914819184839186,"score_spread":0.1885128786192183,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}