{"id":"W2962535243","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2020.08.019","title":"Emerging economy business cycles: Interest rate shocks vs trend shocks","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Economic Modelling","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":7,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada; McMaster University","funders":"","keywords":"Interest rate; Economics; Shock (circulatory); Business cycle; Econometrics; Small open economy; Explanatory power; Monetary economics; Macroeconomics; Financial market; Real interest rate; Bayesian vector autoregression; Bayesian probability; Monetary policy; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0009706009,0.0004132651,0.0004284777,0.0007448781,0.0001333487,0.002206133,0.0004009767,0.001219517,0.004645736],"category_scores_gemma":[0.006305347,0.0001692732,0.000389829,0.002514082,0.0004273018,0.002428965,0.0003885899,0.001228375,0.0005596157],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004298001,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003389748,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004156522,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003251984,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997841,0.0001372723,0.00001364008,0.00002733001,0.00002360429,0.00001421698],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9989582,0.0006522252,0.0001836302,0.00008068081,0.00008407811,0.00004114576],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000539782,0.0001430017,0.02590426,0.0004862168,0.0002918703,0.0002763837,0.0003737877,0.3053719,0.001001049,0.5645639,0.02182905,0.07921866],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00007585632,0.0001668472,0.01766997,0.000302617,0.0001784057,0.0002250519,0.0004675925,0.5916228,0.0007046357,0.3564837,0.03205542,0.00004710399],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6738569,0.03680241,0.1550536,0.01964574,0.002620094,0.00008014176,0.006267773,0.0004534877,0.1052197],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9791625,0.008713481,0.003607751,0.000302626,0.0005431616,0.00002611626,0.0007074173,0.00007054982,0.006866474],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.004645736,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01554155,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1272800401504851,"score_gpt":0.2382277853369177,"score_spread":0.1109477451864327,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}