{"id":"W2966291387","doi":"10.1098/rsif.2019.0202","title":"Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":10,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"McMaster University","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Forcing (mathematics); Invariant (physics); Seasonality; Dynamical systems theory; Amplitude; Robustness (evolution); Epidemic model","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001025645,0.0002564393,0.0002708639,0.000562933,0.0002474487,0.0007758045,0.0005637186,0.0007149118,0.001213351],"category_scores_gemma":[0.006085007,0.0002443302,0.0008183651,0.0001416822,0.001007278,0.0008869079,0.0006208376,0.000652731,0.0001325845],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005178366,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003193272,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001580466,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001150509,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997423,0.00008702011,0.00002102079,0.0000524445,0.00004978655,0.00004737071],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9987943,0.0005733612,0.0002370179,0.0002615278,0.00007047448,0.00006322173],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000163584,0.0001081099,0.0225684,0.0001131384,0.0001274157,0.0005317525,0.0004315519,0.7460085,0.03298139,0.1797481,0.001164355,0.0160537],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001141309,0.00003008772,0.005384178,0.00000799605,0.00001043939,0.00005903365,0.0000695581,0.9349968,0.001120897,0.05806513,0.0002290005,0.00001543281],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8046188,0.0001456237,0.1854101,0.0009757134,0.00008946412,0.00003972574,0.0001964879,0.0001893549,0.008334672],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9966604,0.00005740415,0.002723583,0.00004026614,0.00001180314,0.00001160615,0.00004480849,0.00001020772,0.0004399551],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.001580466,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.005424201,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06964769590047538,"score_gpt":0.3450236613557409,"score_spread":0.2753759654552655,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}