{"id":"W2967839411","doi":"10.1002/sim.8941","title":"Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Statistics in Medicine","topic":"Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":7,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Programme Grants for Applied Research; Medical Research Council Canada; Department of Health and Social Care; Medical Research Council; National Institute for Health and Care Research","keywords":"Bayesian probability; Monte Carlo method; Piecewise; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Psychological intervention; Sample size determination; Design of experiments; Sensitivity (control systems); Research design","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.1156771,0.002114809,0.003852372,0.002236791,0.0008388954,0.002714124,0.003007412,0.003139742,0.004789765],"category_scores_gemma":[0.2039109,0.001767952,0.002870819,0.001334522,0.003763767,0.002683548,0.003745703,0.004574259,0.0006300536],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002538253,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.005413189,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001288279,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001366564,"domain_scores_codex":[0.8733771,0.1165696,0.002151318,0.003192464,0.003810555,0.0008989366],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.8298655,0.1466698,0.00991096,0.008084574,0.004150953,0.001318177],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.007499036,0.0006843886,0.00559392,0.002397531,0.00190385,0.0004351712,0.0009604653,0.3322292,0.003694543,0.4517711,0.003504957,0.1893258],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002179674,0.002215554,0.00201324,0.0005042818,0.0006182595,0.0001286089,0.00006810632,0.7006764,0.002279101,0.2838737,0.005312291,0.0001307305],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.00780574,0.0004324561,0.9880376,0.0004302276,0.00006060084,0.002113179,0.0001090837,0.0001697258,0.0008413364],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.1642935,0.0007698927,0.8192567,0.0004755886,0.00009867015,0.01364473,0.000248346,0.00008907408,0.001123424],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1156771,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.6117661,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4504132282357673,"score_gpt":0.5294635819590232,"score_spread":0.07905035372325586,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}