{"id":"W2967839411","doi":"10.1002/sim.8941","title":"Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Statistics in Medicine","topic":"Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":7,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Programme Grants for Applied Research; Medical Research Council Canada; Department of Health and Social Care; Medical Research Council; National Institute for Health and Care Research","keywords":"Bayesian probability; Monte Carlo method; Piecewise; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Psychological intervention; Sample size determination; Design of experiments; Sensitivity (control systems); Research design","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaresearch","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003537881,0.0001190393,0.001177949,0.0002612197,0.00003678398,0.00001147448,0.00008697437,0.00003501511,0.001159031],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03237247,0.00009529342,0.00007926612,0.0004705818,0.0002077905,0.00001654509,0.00003140461,0.00009317222,2.447825e-7],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00001998079,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00004350504,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00003112995,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00008525206,"domain_scores_codex":[0.997575,0.0007160382,0.001123666,0.0002161763,0.0002074686,0.0001616047],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9785993,0.02056152,0.0003128598,0.0001977419,0.0002490564,0.00007955498],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001030177,0.0001721323,0.0005936936,0.0005622762,0.0003514769,0.00002733538,0.0002632918,0.000006707788,0.002399669,0.9539992,0.002377688,0.03914357],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001207449,0.0004857253,0.007120208,0.00040398,0.002064009,0.000003533473,0.000142095,0.05143005,0.0001895632,0.9368332,0.00002807122,0.00009211308],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.0000954701,0.000208268,0.9981239,0.0001579067,0.00009702663,0.0003155295,0.0008461253,0.000007867263,0.0001478372],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.02105704,0.00007888809,0.9785833,0.00005736302,0.00004313638,0.00003489256,0.00006800356,0.00001108558,0.0000663348],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.05142334,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9997541,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4504132282357673,"score_gpt":0.5294635819590232,"score_spread":0.07905035372325586,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}