{"id":"W2968057380","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3209392","title":"Coherent Mortality Forecasting for Less Developed Countries","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Concordia University; University of Guelph","funders":"","keywords":"Econometrics; Geography; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["sts"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.007304318,0.0001954401,0.0002558805,0.0001329009,0.002130102,0.0002435685,0.0005477109,0.0001042306,0.00006095748],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002285113,0.0001841257,0.0001836779,0.0003509342,0.0005037679,0.0003521458,0.00005299644,0.0006325696,0.00002415125],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001077282,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002762058,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001374422,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.1399613,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9953535,0.0002114435,0.0004571261,0.0002967249,0.0006995942,0.002981663],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986525,0.00009961375,0.0003388419,0.000191511,0.0005908664,0.0001266752],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001004188,0.00009013266,0.1513525,0.00002968409,0.0005383633,0.00000395338,0.004293583,0.000007294826,0.000007897357,0.8008975,0.001483248,0.04119542],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001865006,0.0005977805,0.04142342,0.00008594547,0.0002733655,0.00003647463,0.0388383,0.0002905905,0.0001108852,0.6670457,0.2485698,0.000862725],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9448534,0.0008798853,0.03576553,0.001204429,0.001503653,0.0008698183,0.00001273598,0.0001098648,0.01480067],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9943804,0.001661206,0.0004551254,0.0002132697,0.0017174,0.00004483387,0.000004358737,0.00002695223,0.001496514],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2470865,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.999169,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06630451265341182,"score_gpt":0.3439649448472999,"score_spread":0.2776604321938881,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}