{"id":"W2972019283","doi":"10.1038/s41467-019-11958-4","title":"Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Nature Communications","topic":"earthquake and tectonic studies","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":82,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Western University","funders":"Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft","keywords":"Aftershock; Seismology; Sequence (biology); Magnitude (astronomy); Induced seismicity; Geology; Maximum magnitude; Remotely triggered earthquakes; Seismic hazard; Bayesian probability; Foreshock; Earthquake prediction; Earthquake swarm; Statistics; Mathematics; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002196275,0.00007658557,0.0001015447,0.00002377343,0.0004300443,0.0000206098,0.001201685,0.0000818527,0.0004249446],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002187102,0.00003889299,0.00007898275,0.0003767498,0.0001734556,0.00005808048,0.0001242582,0.0006109188,0.00008129259],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000001676342,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00003659744,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0003759938,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0169424,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992872,0.0001416451,0.0001519151,0.00009619942,0.000178748,0.0001442246],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9976736,0.0007635444,0.000104393,0.001342302,0.00009747736,0.00001864404],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000003968878,0.00001460947,0.9868748,0.00000482825,0.00003072501,1.238943e-7,0.0003619897,0.0000733214,0.00001773287,0.001419829,0.0007927581,0.01040531],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001123714,0.00001721297,0.96599,0.00001829921,0.00001417184,0.00000511282,0.0002957155,0.00124283,0.00005928917,0.0001982745,0.03199179,0.00005491158],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9230884,0.01121204,8.572682e-7,0.004221309,0.0002876227,0.0002799094,0.00004320129,0.00002643544,0.06084019],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9984831,0.0002140326,0.0004979151,0.0003604295,0.00002539842,0.00000222477,0.00002306216,0.000002483221,0.0003914095],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.0753946,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9454256,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02870491627728979,"score_gpt":0.2448146162698102,"score_spread":0.2161096999925204,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}