{"id":"W2972585474","doi":"10.1007/978-3-030-24448-4_7","title":"Return on Luck","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"book-chapter","venue":"","topic":"Leadership and Management in Organizations","field":"Business, Management and Accounting","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Western University","funders":"","keywords":"Luck; Plan (archaeology); Computer science; Epistemology; History; Philosophy","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.00008601929,0.0003096276,0.0002324685,0.0003725955,0.00009448812,0.0002862838,0.0003304327,0.0002176683,0.02126639],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00002499468,0.0002732571,0.0001121819,0.00006817214,0.00003124447,0.0003692925,0.0001981307,0.000249427,0.05149813],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00003571464,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001707596,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.000020159,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0000300186,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989019,0.000001013092,0.0002126948,0.0003767695,0.0003035883,0.0002040223],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9991713,0.00002513582,0.0001928292,0.000495851,0.0001072074,0.000007739577],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000003021817,0.000008213939,0.00002378786,0.00009816867,0.00003338778,0.000003955112,0.000003812268,0.000003565672,7.239723e-7,0.6669993,0.3323987,0.0004233366],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000163851,0.00000643231,0.00002399259,0.00006579924,0.0001023489,2.315671e-7,0.00002470938,0.00006666416,0.000001241296,0.02992401,0.969264,0.0003567557],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"other","genre_scores_codex":[0.000002861569,0.00002701128,0.0002101699,0.005457614,0.001168162,0.0003679766,0.000002647763,0.0003471267,0.9924164],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.002303499,0.00002423363,0.00002579222,0.03429157,0.001957141,0.000002234339,0.0002097674,0.0001200948,0.9610656],"genre_candidate":"other","genre_consensus":"other","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6370753,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.999972,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02810290285238635,"score_gpt":0.2022118739775108,"score_spread":0.1741089711251244,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}