{"id":"W2977603845","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3471381","title":"How to Improve Inflation Forecasting in Canada","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Inflation (cosmology); Economics; Econometrics; Keynesian economics; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004103332,0.0004504302,0.000596844,0.002469901,0.002761587,0.004254638,0.001042218,0.0009778249,0.006995381],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0253961,0.0002664075,0.0004677044,0.004713837,0.0004084091,0.002073919,0.001016531,0.001447962,0.001363224],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.02406941,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.08501913,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.9875516,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.9864716,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9981382,0.0002958878,0.0001561645,0.0002466298,0.000713168,0.0004499078],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9868145,0.001162893,0.0005491101,0.0004699381,0.01018718,0.0008163306],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003502876,0.0001552266,0.1495574,0.0002612181,0.0002035127,0.000188924,0.000927487,0.05997476,0.00142022,0.009512601,0.1807272,0.5967212],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002522733,0.0001445981,0.2575862,0.0007020906,0.0004862502,0.0001138346,0.004701191,0.4942966,0.006982958,0.01680145,0.2176301,0.0003025097],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.5866037,0.009364968,0.0515941,0.1700872,0.003205563,0.0005282807,0.01962874,0.007729305,0.1512581],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.940077,0.002025178,0.03908951,0.002207029,0.0003263564,0.00004306551,0.003705944,0.0002930776,0.01223276],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02406941,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1746367,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02391662180127324,"score_gpt":0.1819042684694798,"score_spread":0.1579876466682065,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}