{"id":"W2980114169","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2019.103775","title":"Are sunspots learnable? An experimental investigation in a simple macroeconomic model","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control","topic":"Economic theories and models","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":12,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Burnaby Hospital; Bank of Canada; Simon Fraser University","funders":"Bank of Canada","keywords":"Simple (philosophy); Economics; Sunspot; Mathematical economics; Econometrics; Keynesian economics; Macroeconomic model; Physics; Applied mathematics; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00202364,0.0002286902,0.0008814965,0.000183182,0.0003485391,0.00113191,0.0009324245,0.001211524,0.005831454],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02161997,0.0002854101,0.000361483,0.0002274529,0.0009787029,0.001812471,0.0006788607,0.001228109,0.0002105606],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003401141,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004410355,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0009640289,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0006082916,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996313,0.0001666062,0.00003287875,0.00008998151,0.00003994688,0.00003927407],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9794043,0.01694504,0.001193459,0.001665367,0.0004101471,0.0003816467],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.01826777,0.006635681,0.05440662,0.002390543,0.001333866,0.00234304,0.003326755,0.366678,0.06713535,0.4018723,0.01272041,0.06288972],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002818853,0.002076147,0.01722112,0.00005672167,0.0003896411,0.0002750841,0.0005935161,0.703692,0.0106904,0.2600857,0.001980498,0.0001203093],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9899123,0.0001012001,0.00690964,0.0006814973,0.00003944085,0.00003500166,0.0001464601,0.00004451785,0.002129878],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9982396,0.00005843183,0.001060245,0.00005756456,0.00001277247,0.00002076128,0.0000621771,0.000007733157,0.0004808012],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.005831454,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01950812,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01456267819622467,"score_gpt":0.2163900568345634,"score_spread":0.2018273786383388,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}