{"id":"W2989658462","doi":"10.1007/s11408-019-00337-0","title":"Oil, the Baltic Dry index, market (il)liquidity and business cycles: evidence from net oil-exporting/oil-importing countries","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Financial markets and portfolio management","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":12,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Market liquidity; Causality (physics); Predictive power; Monetary economics; Explanatory power; Economy; Financial crisis; Financial economics; International economics; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0008377715,0.0002873419,0.0004047106,0.002092067,0.0004052826,0.001534447,0.0002728824,0.0002953874,0.002926725],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002985547,0.0001496762,0.0004178144,0.002660979,0.0008219845,0.0008338459,0.001008383,0.0006054346,0.0004903857],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003846793,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005351699,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02335461,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.02287137,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997665,0.00005712262,0.00003125325,0.00005255912,0.00005157981,0.00004099911],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9957063,0.001519459,0.001859946,0.0001647772,0.0003610202,0.0003884602],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001663407,0.00005419484,0.9923511,0.000044157,0.000207757,0.0002158502,0.0002004587,0.0006182021,0.0001938969,0.0004955517,0.0006512389,0.004801259],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002128985,0.00005975471,0.9938869,0.00007174341,0.000152555,0.0001574854,0.001091235,0.001645891,0.0002877097,0.0005228923,0.002091428,0.00001110296],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9957761,0.001067885,0.0001000034,0.000193629,0.00001141973,0.00000372567,0.0008913849,0.000004878665,0.001950872],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9972862,0.0004860354,0.00005377687,0.00003076969,0.00001914356,0.000002160301,0.001807239,0.000003010314,0.000311551],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02335461,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04643738,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01331475440729244,"score_gpt":0.2115570148274604,"score_spread":0.198242260420168,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}