{"id":"W2993868100","doi":"10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117737","title":"Previous year outbreak conditions and spring climate predict spruce budworm population changes in the following year","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Forest Ecology and Management","topic":"Fire effects on ecosystems","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":14,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of New Brunswick","funders":"Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency","keywords":"Spruce budworm; Population; Choristoneura fumiferana; Geography; Environmental science; Outbreak; Forestry; Ecology; Demography; Statistics; Physical geography; Biology; Mathematics; Tortricidae","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004002017,0.0002163837,0.0001603214,0.0004452106,0.0003038641,0.0007165195,0.0002208301,0.0004622584,0.003004116],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001105548,0.0002014445,0.0004565983,0.0002700311,0.0001596439,0.0003937441,0.0002916619,0.000437011,0.000337366],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003369194,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002317927,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01726246,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.05575082,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998908,0.00001827564,0.000007938816,0.00003132628,0.000009691932,0.00004198525],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9988901,0.0002185416,0.0003785343,0.00005048282,0.000066534,0.0003958406],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00005923639,0.00004770711,0.9986143,0.000002244057,0.00003839872,0.00002221844,0.00002097301,0.0001346656,0.0004165391,0.000006600383,0.00008768667,0.0005494085],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000001094214,0.00001818354,0.9994618,0.000001244919,0.000009128359,0.00002224262,0.00005512013,0.0003470833,0.000034301,0.000006314605,0.00004249482,8.018349e-7],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9995178,0.00003924513,0.00004825328,0.00002078945,0.00000655877,0.000001507851,0.0001382231,0.00000429105,0.0002232384],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9992952,0.00003506257,0.00004570396,0.00001507689,0.000006428345,0.000001557462,0.0002930656,0.000002528025,0.0003053396],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01726246,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03432393,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.003929603354947682,"score_gpt":0.2043846617883001,"score_spread":0.2004550584333525,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}