{"id":"W2994379543","doi":"","title":"Will High Risk Events Trigger a Recession","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"˜The œjournal of business forecasting","topic":"Economic, financial, and policy analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Quarter (Canadian coin); Recession; Economics; Business cycle; Liberian dollar; Currency; Global recession; Real gross domestic product; Economic recovery; Economic indicator; Monetary economics; Geography; Finance; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002902248,0.000192577,0.0006358963,0.0003954877,0.0002276146,0.00006224545,0.0004570289,0.0001157879,0.00009298919],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0006448147,0.0001544099,0.0002052175,0.0006756379,0.00005543586,0.0008105613,0.00008122099,0.0003148188,0.0001253374],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001526057,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0000970881,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001658204,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001557446,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998054,0.00006335779,0.001287472,0.0001888508,0.00008059772,0.0003257389],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9964721,0.0001768108,0.002620129,0.0002808131,0.0003096123,0.0001405234],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001315126,0.0006142279,0.8106812,0.00018335,0.001115737,0.00008152177,0.006690856,0.06554329,0.00004549094,0.01448749,0.01942781,0.07981392],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.009845258,0.0006308256,0.1996561,0.0006583748,0.0006165579,0.0008158258,0.0008960158,0.06206271,0.0001560113,0.4443286,0.2785065,0.001827241],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9769031,0.00165933,0.01666016,0.0008895487,0.001364865,0.00009088957,0.00005031837,0.00001183295,0.002369967],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9969408,0.0003847094,0.0006653751,0.0001485526,0.001099895,0.000002473693,0.000004591559,0.00003166288,0.0007219551],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6110251,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.6296653,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06788981903664146,"score_gpt":0.2309062360622753,"score_spread":0.1630164170256338,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}