{"id":"W2994953336","doi":"10.3386/w20346","title":"Political Booms, Financial Crises","year":2014,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":16,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"HEC Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Boom; Politics; Financial system; Business; Finance; Economics; Political science; Geology; Oceanography; Law","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0008756062,0.0003168931,0.0003820871,0.001045322,0.0007672021,0.002845686,0.0002366903,0.00113924,0.01899735],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01438302,0.0001432903,0.0002369584,0.002009629,0.001227543,0.002350001,0.001172303,0.001645931,0.001388643],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008118915,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000492329,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005613703,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.005689194,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996507,0.0001180555,0.0000186758,0.00008690798,0.00005691477,0.00006860212],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9843886,0.007463838,0.006360243,0.0003928477,0.0004570335,0.0009374025],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005789142,0.0003435366,0.5548172,0.0005972208,0.000284064,0.0008459067,0.001648177,0.01579617,0.001073592,0.2402674,0.08775565,0.09599224],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001046487,0.0002284039,0.5123613,0.0003071085,0.0002559376,0.001100617,0.002920294,0.03591161,0.0006849769,0.3910717,0.05494132,0.0001121191],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7951796,0.0183593,0.01826211,0.03261312,0.0007308566,0.00003903441,0.004323465,0.0003875506,0.1301049],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9943423,0.001756784,0.0003229944,0.0004903013,0.0002548968,0.00001082488,0.0002949152,0.00001657177,0.002510399],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01899735,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.06355244,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3317101176782352,"score_gpt":0.47195672490945,"score_spread":0.1402466072312148,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}