{"id":"W2997000182","doi":"10.1109/istas48451.2019.8937907","title":"Predicting the Likelihood that the United States will Implement Solar Radiation Management through an Analysis of Responses to Historical Crises","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"","topic":"Climate Change and Geoengineering","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Windsor","funders":"","keywords":"Greenhouse gas; Global warming; Climate change; Order (exchange); Geoengineering; Humanity; Political science; Natural resource economics; Environmental planning; Environmental resource management; Environmental science; Environmental economics; Business; Economics; Law; Ecology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004319211,0.00009716373,0.0001217185,0.00008673265,0.0001131465,0.00002816372,0.0002460576,0.00001769684,0.001342387],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00001259642,0.00005438223,0.00006351302,0.0007872774,0.00001384221,0.000219526,0.0002018001,0.00004800902,0.00002513179],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002789267,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000001616871,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006787762,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0009263258,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990204,0.00006802646,0.0001811149,0.0001963334,0.0003152174,0.0002189278],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993671,0.000149104,0.00006272698,0.0003714683,0.000007563457,0.00004205786],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001027678,0.0001461988,0.8074852,0.00002769881,0.0005367522,0.000002688913,0.02419462,0.1561319,0.001658288,0.000367637,0.004092746,0.005253483],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002961681,0.0002909094,0.7365961,0.00001236288,0.0007430968,8.139079e-7,0.02451885,0.1056628,0.002231063,0.000172844,0.1292165,0.000258488],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9940836,0.00003532508,0.002693879,0.002003673,0.00007789002,0.0003457028,0.00001760996,0.0000323834,0.0007099073],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9983933,0.0002037637,0.0002845769,0.0006514229,0.00001347368,0.00002513199,0.00005056537,0.000008151006,0.000369624],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1251237,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998261,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03012187794685449,"score_gpt":0.2707655015591236,"score_spread":0.2406436236122691,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}