{"id":"W2997674479","doi":"10.3138/cpp.2019-011","title":"Are Pre-Election Polls More Helpful than Harmful? Evidence from the Canadian Case","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Canadian Public Policy","topic":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":14,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Université de Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Voting; Political science; Spoilt vote; Affect (linguistics); Group voting ticket; Public relations; Advertising; Business; Psychology; Law; Politics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0180551,0.0004839175,0.0009477811,0.00338693,0.00831802,0.003860768,0.001935637,0.002145835,0.01119599],"category_scores_gemma":[0.07345979,0.0004362204,0.0007355276,0.007003882,0.005791141,0.001635186,0.002327584,0.002406521,0.0005454427],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.02515064,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.04177536,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.9825587,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.989439,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9803203,0.004847367,0.0007339549,0.001765705,0.007254754,0.005077915],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9281903,0.03186128,0.01648198,0.005103632,0.01148252,0.006880399],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0009122151,0.0003273748,0.8652678,0.0004767694,0.0003658779,0.0006076877,0.0230689,0.0003606195,0.000233606,0.02808313,0.02399915,0.05629678],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001048552,0.00007707343,0.9425206,0.0003418558,0.0004074829,0.0001300864,0.01734585,0.000576035,0.0002598652,0.001950791,0.03620978,0.0000756743],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8473608,0.005094196,0.0006782755,0.0228076,0.0002036824,0.0001772304,0.002485759,0.00002944651,0.121163],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9922642,0.001299672,0.0001455196,0.001186862,0.00006060141,0.00002132624,0.0003767287,0.00001117011,0.004634026],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02515064,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1824815,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1342477130935274,"score_gpt":0.3692199646838584,"score_spread":0.234972251590331,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}