{"id":"W2999760353","doi":"10.1016/j.envres.2020.109127","title":"Dragons, black swans and decisions","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Environmental Research","topic":"Risk and Safety Analysis","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":31,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"BC Hydro (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Black swan theory; Surprise; Warrant; History; Event (particle physics); Metaphor; Decision maker; White (mutation); Operations research; Psychology; Epistemology; Business; Philosophy; Engineering; Social psychology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.005843594,0.0008851548,0.0004680933,0.001842027,0.003526765,0.007906932,0.0007657854,0.003174664,0.01119571],"category_scores_gemma":[0.008485163,0.0003682781,0.0004042723,0.0020038,0.01676903,0.006218731,0.00275876,0.003148367,0.0006502638],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.006110122,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.003647766,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01060975,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01870284,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9947389,0.003562658,0.0001027396,0.0003176083,0.0007066418,0.000571569],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9942094,0.003992551,0.0005823315,0.0001152021,0.0004427762,0.0006577595],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009058054,0.00004590906,0.001041167,0.0001163341,0.00002454442,0.0002535064,0.002497009,0.002490155,0.00006929688,0.9624702,0.009734383,0.02116706],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002664922,0.0000650542,0.0008914823,0.000312334,0.00001361075,0.00008138408,0.007002645,0.001862732,0.0001116953,0.8933182,0.09627509,0.00003909117],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"commentary","genre_scores_codex":[0.1045044,0.03743901,0.03737061,0.1784221,0.00198462,0.0001857442,0.0002500741,0.00006339619,0.63978],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9360122,0.01361964,0.007956409,0.007002688,0.0006084607,0.00008471742,0.00005502164,0.0000194757,0.03464133],"genre_candidate":"commentary","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.01119571,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04433221,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2826392635719648,"score_gpt":0.4526489130370031,"score_spread":0.1700096494650382,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}