{"id":"W3004047749","doi":"10.1093/jtm/taaa011","title":"Potential for global spread of a novel coronavirus from China","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Travel Medicine","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":385,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"BlueDot (Canada); St. Michael's Hospital; University of Toronto; University Health Network","funders":"","keywords":"China; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Medicine; Coronavirus; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Transmission (telecommunications); Pandemic; Virology; Betacoronavirus; Coronavirus Infections; Environmental health; Disease; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Outbreak; Geography; Internal medicine; Telecommunications","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001661393,0.0003453554,0.0002806278,0.0006311322,0.0006725227,0.001007539,0.0003604505,0.0006165492,0.002598887],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002293339,0.0001635305,0.0004453528,0.0009205083,0.0004934081,0.001112263,0.001049125,0.000682917,0.0001439334],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001242267,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00195735,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02273972,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.02636416,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995211,0.0001173082,0.00002731616,0.0001053673,0.00008233682,0.000146559],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9991677,0.0001285718,0.0002392624,0.000114011,0.0001885491,0.000161861],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001786515,0.00009303155,0.9379127,0.0001710048,0.0003385657,0.001619436,0.001533152,0.001605547,0.00471101,0.004159371,0.002846727,0.04483073],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00005744009,0.0004356603,0.9738007,0.0001766866,0.0002045814,0.001201439,0.003332691,0.002673369,0.0009854414,0.003978771,0.01310664,0.00004651503],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9878796,0.001535058,0.0008983047,0.003356166,0.00006023136,0.00007247344,0.0003930759,0.00001401857,0.005791239],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9965115,0.0011424,0.0004877437,0.0007503899,0.00004895427,0.00003364446,0.0003402497,0.000003190496,0.0006818376],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02273972,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04521471,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.282140848878322,"score_gpt":0.4426294136910762,"score_spread":0.1604885648127542,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}