{"id":"W3006028839","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.001","title":"An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov)","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Infectious Disease Modelling","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":827,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"York University","funders":"Division of Mathematical Sciences; Tian Yuan Mathematical Foundation; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; National Natural Science Foundation of China; Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences","keywords":"Basic reproduction number; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Transmission (telecommunications); Estimation; Outbreak; Statistics; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Isolation (microbiology); Coronavirus; Psychological intervention; Population; Computer science; Demography; Biology; Medicine; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Virology; Mathematics; Environmental health; Disease; Bioinformatics; Telecommunications; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.000354699,0.0001433623,0.0003412492,0.00001964928,0.0001369859,0.000004479788,0.0002547253,0.00006322569,0.00002602903],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0008767086,0.00007877447,0.0002505589,0.0002555527,0.000144435,0.00006348931,0.00007754801,0.0001657508,9.379629e-7],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00003632741,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00007081017,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0004274375,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0000101857,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9986268,0.0002327361,0.0005396532,0.0002050902,0.0002657748,0.0001299717],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9982632,0.0006086678,0.0005342353,0.0003778893,0.0001233247,0.00009263749],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009842339,0.0003202345,0.02141956,0.0002053014,0.00007027571,1.485273e-7,0.0006442975,0.9719109,0.001796004,0.002245639,0.0000521508,0.001237073],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003809989,0.00006423044,0.01040515,0.00009182281,0.0003190487,1.799364e-7,0.0000152665,0.9276515,0.002371046,0.05855892,0.00005180969,0.00009000349],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.5261993,0.00007937908,0.4730983,0.0002001005,0.00002915093,0.0002569927,0.00007452701,0.00003330559,0.00002888092],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9970101,0.0000525726,0.002739606,0.0001474045,0.00001912481,0.00000821428,0.000004534684,0.00001525755,0.00000317589],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4708108,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.321233,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1603048890971653,"score_gpt":0.3706369746099513,"score_spread":0.2103320855127861,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}