{"id":"W3006456429","doi":"10.3386/w26752","title":"Stagnation and Scientific Incentives","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"scientometrics and bibliometrics research","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":60,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"National Institute on Aging; Leibniz-Gemeinschaft","keywords":"Incentive; Economics; Business; Microeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaresearch","bibliometrics","scholarly_communication"],"consensus_categories":["metaresearch","bibliometrics"],"category_scores_codex":[0.06395192,0.0001777778,0.0004784752,0.0600862,0.0004009506,0.004887408,0.003149489,0.0003032515,0.0006866389],"category_scores_gemma":[0.05965398,0.0001522183,0.0001629313,0.02991079,0.001306018,0.0005431869,0.005597773,0.001126931,0.0004675549],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000676423,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002783657,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002002207,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00002959779,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9808739,0.0007214461,0.001152453,0.0016825,0.01501537,0.0005543599],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.97692,0.009563462,0.0004913615,0.0006685343,0.01191337,0.0004432816],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009379379,0.0001732493,0.02094092,0.0000949696,0.0000884172,0.00000437778,0.0004431586,0.0008543872,0.002628996,0.8398038,0.09184442,0.04302946],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002665454,0.0000713513,0.01955619,0.00002033695,0.000002164112,0.000001028935,0.0001763279,0.02553613,0.0006746961,0.9456951,0.007859061,0.0001410455],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7707537,0.005627578,0.0006204489,0.01940881,0.002844926,0.002047567,0.0008899714,0.00004235865,0.1977647],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9944533,0.0003484706,0.0007921662,0.00001683128,0.0002380194,0.00003538353,0.0001105286,0.00001408166,0.003991242],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2236996,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9961456,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.9232644462540172,"score_gpt":0.7214025480609675,"score_spread":0.2018618981930497,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}