{"id":"W3007759307","doi":"10.1080/15140326.2020.1722384","title":"Merchandise exports and economic growth: multivariate time series analysis for the United Arab Emirates","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Applied Economics","topic":"Global trade and economics","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":42,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"McMaster University","funders":"","keywords":"Cointegration; Economics; Ordinary least squares; Granger causality; Johansen test; Causality (physics); Econometrics; Autoregressive model; Wald test; Short run; Multivariate statistics; Time series; Vector autoregression; Error correction model; Macroeconomics; Mathematics; Statistical hypothesis testing; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006671991,0.0002611395,0.0009468995,0.0003364308,0.0001737732,0.0002167047,0.0003985765,0.0001348621,0.0001877612],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00005133349,0.0002492954,0.0003894202,0.0002036159,0.0001076555,0.0004199559,0.00008280615,0.0001981251,0.0001364914],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001402112,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00004415754,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00006711749,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00001901476,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979138,0.000007191773,0.001369462,0.0003731777,0.00001608754,0.0003203174],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9978821,0.0002135175,0.001399271,0.0002239503,0.00003681897,0.0002444025],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.002223975,0.0001455401,0.05242839,0.0001216892,0.00947184,0.00000700946,0.004442794,0.2359319,0.0001116163,0.689217,0.005040878,0.0008574257],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.01087869,0.001215463,0.07313561,0.00002625331,0.002450671,0.0001034315,0.003288173,0.3909164,0.002140403,0.2626275,0.2503737,0.002843624],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9857956,0.0006788152,0.003833895,0.005778487,0.0003631245,0.0004049828,0.0004964417,0.00002251219,0.002626149],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9934926,0.002140709,0.002408576,0.001334971,0.0004681892,0.00001912825,0.00003527703,0.00004170744,0.00005884122],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4265894,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999959,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04887762035012343,"score_gpt":0.208150615708215,"score_spread":0.1592729953580916,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}