{"id":"W3012788892","doi":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2020.100023","title":"1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Global Epidemiology","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":52,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Alberta; Laurentian University","funders":"","keywords":"Heuristic; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Extrapolation; Pandemic; Simple (philosophy); Exponential function; Econometrics; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Statistics; Plot (graphics); Mathematics; Mathematical optimization; Medicine; Outbreak; Virology; Mathematical analysis","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007225034,0.0004756656,0.0002561007,0.0009527172,0.000305295,0.0006701272,0.0005998122,0.0003659947,0.002120798],"category_scores_gemma":[0.004763889,0.0001380076,0.0003987782,0.0005892043,0.000347582,0.0006645962,0.00034995,0.0003248227,0.0001583909],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001182096,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001405524,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02426705,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01983331,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997724,0.00007454452,0.00002272688,0.00005539653,0.0000442296,0.00003076994],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986406,0.0008847586,0.0001563966,0.00009010769,0.0001677987,0.00006029006],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002707893,0.0001077153,0.05447387,0.0001594685,0.0000653461,0.0005846215,0.0002929529,0.8586456,0.0006548575,0.0177432,0.004059288,0.06294243],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003726848,0.00005749169,0.006346393,0.00005559568,0.00003477032,0.00008946145,0.0002688889,0.971599,0.0007376834,0.01914873,0.001609262,0.00001555813],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.809478,0.0005450738,0.1625233,0.003868622,0.0001327935,0.0002072686,0.00400906,0.0008377609,0.0183981],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.965394,0.0001583884,0.0324561,0.00006723204,0.00001969729,0.00004624229,0.0009947871,0.00000824742,0.0008552479],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02426705,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04825157,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2648462677591209,"score_gpt":0.4476661313570791,"score_spread":0.1828198635979582,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}