{"id":"W3014628651","doi":"10.1101/2020.04.01.20049973","title":"Modeling risk of infectious diseases: a case of Coronavirus outbreak in four countries","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"medRxiv","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":13,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Outbreak; China; Geography; Transmission (telecommunications); Coronavirus; Population; Pandemic; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Socioeconomics; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Demography; Environmental health; Disease; Medicine; Virology; Engineering; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001354825,0.0008511563,0.0005384368,0.001110955,0.0008174388,0.001177469,0.001305523,0.001714832,0.002169125],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002943882,0.0004430843,0.001215972,0.0006625298,0.0005670275,0.001014996,0.001198668,0.001184421,0.0001522789],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001729376,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001090569,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.07139071,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.03153122,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9993985,0.0002389315,0.00003475834,0.0001236458,0.00005016001,0.0001540442],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.997987,0.001250747,0.0002461019,0.00009235786,0.0002267095,0.0001969322],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001530697,0.0002419236,0.0919375,0.00004423429,0.0001279456,0.001072703,0.0001530544,0.8993658,0.0002962292,0.001985013,0.00157359,0.003048807],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002099189,0.0000792234,0.006564194,0.000008493745,0.00002956751,0.00008486592,0.0002082101,0.9918371,0.00009004823,0.0008094917,0.0002536007,0.00001422641],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9900705,0.0001904385,0.006077344,0.0008345267,0.0000374112,0.00005533912,0.0008068067,0.00005855426,0.001868997],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9969428,0.00009273927,0.001585627,0.00003340168,0.00001300545,0.00003742894,0.0004580975,0.000005402079,0.0008314747],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.07139071,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1419504,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2194440474176049,"score_gpt":0.4125196616982846,"score_spread":0.1930756142806797,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}