{"id":"W3018701121","doi":"10.1214/20-aoas1348","title":"Markov decision processes with dynamic transition probabilities: An analysis of shooting strategies in basketball","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Annals of Applied Statistics","topic":"Sports Analytics and Performance","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":27,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Basketball; Transition (genetics); Markov chain; Computer science; Machine learning; History; Chemistry","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002411613,0.000701418,0.0009523337,0.0008608297,0.0005356455,0.001405615,0.001481186,0.001193962,0.004720429],"category_scores_gemma":[0.009307036,0.0006332397,0.000862905,0.00067942,0.001212934,0.001753355,0.00109112,0.001829088,0.0002725462],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00160422,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001501395,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01746851,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01174392,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992622,0.0002832299,0.00002748403,0.000126895,0.0001301207,0.0001700952],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9951794,0.003592876,0.0005851621,0.0001214836,0.0002297797,0.0002913157],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00004867548,0.00003858373,0.002301773,0.00002366805,0.00003731524,0.0001048928,0.00009719979,0.9294245,0.0004300952,0.06403445,0.0003509364,0.003107891],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00000801619,0.0000182714,0.0004586357,0.000006103132,0.000007386036,0.000011959,0.00003214234,0.9818886,0.00006531749,0.01731151,0.0001845108,0.000007624521],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4325787,0.0006084729,0.5558171,0.00120028,0.00006252014,0.0001473383,0.0003812404,0.0001623071,0.009041965],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9781797,0.0003545569,0.01573916,0.00009358401,0.00002339263,0.00009302937,0.0001565233,0.00003955713,0.005320502],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.01746851,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03473365,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05151780571094042,"score_gpt":0.2760733188156001,"score_spread":0.2245555131046597,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}