{"id":"W3019397219","doi":"","title":"Quantifying the Macroeconomic Effects of the COVID-19 Lockdown: Comparative Simulations of the Estimated Galí-Smets-Wouters Model","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":9,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Shock (circulatory); Quarter (Canadian coin); Per capita; Economics; Demographic economics; Matching (statistics); Work (physics); Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Consumption (sociology); Labour economics; Demography; Geography; Population; Medicine; Statistics; Engineering; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002511676,0.0005054912,0.00142555,0.0004938274,0.000460985,0.0001422373,0.002892823,0.0004650224,0.00006478472],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005317535,0.0003897407,0.0006379262,0.0005489557,0.001284805,0.0001551938,0.00279577,0.002261131,0.00001851853],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002366452,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001854729,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0009822292,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0007370934,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9954453,0.0004785334,0.001951064,0.001146202,0.0001714796,0.000807436],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9910542,0.004373999,0.001748159,0.00246138,0.00010862,0.0002536876],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00008998888,0.00009641955,0.06810395,0.0007251076,0.0002846613,0.000001573634,0.004179391,0.9183223,0.0002005717,0.007241596,0.0002719477,0.0004825367],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001271335,0.00005067138,0.0250179,0.0002764926,0.00003717058,0.000003806475,0.0003191166,0.9463957,0.0007299369,0.02271818,0.00270727,0.000472424],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9768383,0.0008362994,0.0006028786,0.0087393,0.00112767,0.003968304,0.0014824,0.00004825736,0.006356603],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9969757,0.0009693477,0.0003098894,0.001181025,0.00007063566,0.0001478486,0.00002807828,0.00007564081,0.0002418499],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.04308605,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998555,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2300165507185355,"score_gpt":0.4026812359174824,"score_spread":0.1726646851989469,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}