{"id":"W3019480792","doi":"10.1037/amp0000637","title":"Words or numbers? Communicating probability in intelligence analysis.","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"review","venue":"American Psychologist","topic":"Computability, Logic, AI Algorithms","field":"Computer Science","cited_by":50,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Defence Research and Development Canada","funders":"Ministère de la Défense Nationale; New Zealand Government","keywords":"Intelligence analysis; Computer science; Psychology; Artificial intelligence; Computer security","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003544746,0.0008080027,0.001014819,0.004052128,0.0005165268,0.003384937,0.001527869,0.00278022,0.003279904],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0111661,0.0004169962,0.0005588551,0.005055641,0.004401709,0.007761855,0.001197089,0.003292224,0.002367029],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001993847,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002699335,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003486022,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003796367,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9982179,0.000974783,0.0001494552,0.0001642037,0.0004437719,0.00004993747],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9925014,0.006369639,0.0003372447,0.0001473363,0.0005415228,0.0001029217],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00004135737,0.00003015845,0.0002369252,0.01096393,0.00006942569,0.00006391136,0.000471374,0.0004984813,0.0001635919,0.08975746,0.03537735,0.8623261],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001825656,0.0000556517,0.001067735,0.01372506,0.00008857396,0.0007187267,0.0004297342,0.0004482208,0.0003220905,0.08314978,0.8999354,0.00004076588],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"review","genre_gemma":"review","genre_scores_codex":[0.00007685056,0.9941847,0.0008941825,0.001959564,0.0002749934,0.000004670742,0.000007899505,0.000009012146,0.002588189],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.003169511,0.9931015,0.001303762,0.00112352,0.0004979947,0.00001806613,0.00001789531,0.000008277403,0.0007595214],"genre_candidate":"review","genre_consensus":"review","teacher_disagreement_score":0.004052128,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01874661,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1447265649232287,"score_gpt":0.4332301295061516,"score_spread":0.2885035645829229,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}