{"id":"W3021326561","doi":"10.1101/2020.05.03.20089524","title":"Awareness-driven Behavior Changes Can Shift the Shape of Epidemics Away from Peaks and Towards Plateaus, Shoulders, and Oscillations","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"medRxiv","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":15,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"McMaster University","funders":"Army Research Office; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Canadian Institutes of Health Research; National Institutes of Health; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Shoulders; Demography; Falling (accident); Relaxation (psychology); Plateau (mathematics); Geography; Case fatality rate; Population; Demographic economics; Medicine; Environmental health; Economics; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0008779194,0.0004832067,0.001306743,0.00006920128,0.0002531362,0.00004299431,0.0005118957,0.0004522006,0.00006272615],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005652477,0.000321565,0.0001541504,0.0001306918,0.0005099403,0.00002607141,0.002343628,0.0008290916,0.000001436414],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00007303662,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001184314,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003357181,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004095397,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9973587,0.0004109023,0.0007140636,0.0008434166,0.0003351061,0.0003377932],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9938489,0.004638582,0.0005773429,0.0006676248,0.00009557612,0.0001719274],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00002220179,0.00005894812,0.9862035,0.0005894046,0.0003064056,0.00001885352,0.005691255,0.00005339182,0.0001628024,0.003034204,0.000987375,0.002871674],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002632902,0.00006939821,0.8575873,0.000261013,0.0007530701,0.000002200168,0.000430505,0.003964182,0.00007386235,0.1345787,0.001559831,0.0004565675],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9555736,0.002009698,0.001112725,0.03872323,0.0002630689,0.0009793494,0.001092891,0.0001395725,0.000105837],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.99374,0.002237895,0.002702677,0.0007093797,0.0002409167,0.0002275784,0.00006776085,0.00004707856,0.00002676111],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1315445,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999236,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3582127996683024,"score_gpt":0.4284934779446199,"score_spread":0.07028067827631751,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}