{"id":"W3022618191","doi":"10.3386/w14737","title":"Dynamics of Consumer Demand for New Durable Goods","year":2009,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":72,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"HEC Montréal","funders":"National Science Foundation","keywords":"Consumer demand; Commerce; Durable good; Business; Economics; Microeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005632205,0.0002066883,0.000336221,0.0004223436,0.0002133409,0.001334831,0.0005070877,0.001046581,0.003764079],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003838516,0.0004328945,0.0004559561,0.0005855958,0.0004150253,0.001856414,0.0004234423,0.0009104949,0.0005102261],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001476332,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002919974,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01163845,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.009762556,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997367,0.00008007279,0.00001171967,0.00007013929,0.00005446614,0.0000468635],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986112,0.0008691105,0.000284696,0.00007943797,0.0000936635,0.00006178134],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003997551,0.0003279511,0.1717213,0.0001853185,0.0001685704,0.000918125,0.001122012,0.6185079,0.00601281,0.1566902,0.00864898,0.03529723],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00005553355,0.00006775603,0.04802261,0.00001764687,0.00002573846,0.00020765,0.0003740407,0.8981364,0.0004639502,0.04977613,0.002803796,0.00004885373],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9699589,0.0003492459,0.0171029,0.002911939,0.00001516436,0.0000295515,0.001552045,0.00007352209,0.008006668],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9939429,0.0002524451,0.001552691,0.00007822898,0.00001185713,0.00001908852,0.0005632229,0.0000105174,0.003568917],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01163845,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02314144,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.498711331421584,"score_gpt":0.5579101806497023,"score_spread":0.0591988492281183,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}