{"id":"W3022618191","doi":"10.3386/w14737","title":"Dynamics of Consumer Demand for New Durable Goods","year":2009,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":72,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"HEC Montréal","funders":"National Science Foundation","keywords":"Consumer demand; Commerce; Durable good; Business; Economics; Microeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaresearch","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01401858,0.0001620858,0.0005685881,0.001529429,0.0001363324,0.0001567814,0.001201711,0.0003516677,0.0009148187],"category_scores_gemma":[0.008810297,0.0001461241,0.0002370971,0.0004472311,0.0002577841,0.0001465213,0.0004807198,0.00051675,0.00007231806],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004173096,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00248826,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002324376,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001906188,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9954725,0.0001876757,0.001628215,0.0005974362,0.001798645,0.0003155525],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.990572,0.004327548,0.0008989233,0.0004876623,0.003604769,0.0001091396],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001219643,0.00006588895,0.001075481,0.0000439457,0.00004799317,2.529361e-7,0.00008155841,0.00623614,0.0001348559,0.8882392,0.0822074,0.0217453],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0005440848,0.00005932303,0.0008459645,0.0000559176,0.000004143867,0.000001873551,0.00009496365,0.1010864,0.0003938594,0.8939495,0.002851646,0.0001123558],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.1795132,0.0008990576,0.02284823,0.02200771,0.002192965,0.003807703,0.001265605,0.00004971246,0.7674158],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9758706,0.00007394185,0.00917738,0.00007326306,0.0003116588,0.00003328637,0.0003145942,0.00001989841,0.01412536],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.7963575,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999985,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.498711331421584,"score_gpt":0.5579101806497023,"score_spread":0.0591988492281183,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}