{"id":"W3022765029","doi":"","title":"Deterministic and Ensemble Storm Surge Prediction for Atlantic Canada With Lead Times of Hours to Ten Days","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"EGUGA","topic":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Dalhousie University; TransCanada (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Surge; Storm surge; Meteorology; Environmental science; Lead time; Flooding (psychology); Forecast period; Climatology; Ensemble average; Coastal flood; Allowance (engineering); Lead (geology); Storm; Geography; Geology; Engineering; Oceanography; Production (economics); Economics; Operations management","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003200901,0.0006328727,0.000360272,0.0005076469,0.0005780052,0.0005874346,0.0008257618,0.0003160697,0.001295128],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001189008,0.0003032028,0.0004378396,0.0008871027,0.0001993878,0.0002749547,0.0003233798,0.0005387461,0.0001511132],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.004607129,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00766413,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.9438042,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.9493758,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998754,0.000009634316,0.000006467582,0.00002949453,0.0000454251,0.00003355],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993163,0.0001592304,0.00005969859,0.00004155413,0.0003535222,0.0000696088],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001613957,0.00006088366,0.038293,0.00002503426,0.00007353172,0.00007171495,0.00002492575,0.941327,0.0005340955,0.0002743301,0.002782451,0.01637175],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0000175776,0.0000123309,0.01161431,0.000002537301,0.000007753244,0.000003825588,0.00001363454,0.9878499,0.0002120792,0.00005339854,0.0002059246,0.000006627427],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.987086,0.000165778,0.003436924,0.0001972592,0.00003562552,0.00002674924,0.006012985,0.0004082379,0.002630416],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9915671,0.000094716,0.002396913,0.00001525212,0.000007705958,0.00001216309,0.004737232,0.0000163544,0.001152579],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.0561958,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1130534,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02353343883556345,"score_gpt":0.2240070878743152,"score_spread":0.2004736490387518,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}