{"id":"W3022765029","doi":"","title":"Deterministic and Ensemble Storm Surge Prediction for Atlantic Canada With Lead Times of Hours to Ten Days","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"EGUGA","topic":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Dalhousie University; TransCanada (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Surge; Storm surge; Meteorology; Environmental science; Lead time; Flooding (psychology); Forecast period; Climatology; Ensemble average; Coastal flood; Allowance (engineering); Lead (geology); Storm; Geography; Geology; Engineering; Oceanography; Production (economics); Economics; Operations management","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00006625573,0.00006266951,0.0001205204,0.00002697174,0.00004689038,0.00001704213,0.00007106688,0.00002459236,0.00006463679],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00006560679,0.00004125968,0.00001155622,0.00008038625,0.00004345858,0.00004751743,0.000006751276,0.00004625857,0.000008145924],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000006605551,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001844248,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.4152193,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.8588926,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9993196,0.00001906545,0.00009664502,0.0001338708,0.0002267509,0.0002040491],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9995033,0.0001191512,0.00001909531,0.00007633434,0.00004765899,0.0002344369],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001581912,0.000005477087,0.989295,0.0000212597,0.000006875385,0.000008188683,0.00004603959,0.0001384819,0.00001861684,0.00002395125,0.003674602,0.006603321],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002918383,0.0008048023,0.9918473,0.00001422766,0.0000100306,0.000011038,0.00009181833,0.0009004743,0.00007289808,0.0001165677,0.005766299,0.00007275049],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9983855,0.00008362375,0.0001883545,0.0002546719,0.00008934169,0.0001551935,0.00008761831,0.000009483023,0.0007461895],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9991848,0.000003778294,0.0004397539,0.00004449331,0.00007041407,0.000002119071,0.00003889444,0.000002246474,0.0002134899],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4436733,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5886748,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02353343883556345,"score_gpt":0.2240070878743152,"score_spread":0.2004736490387518,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}