{"id":"W3035797334","doi":"10.3329/bjms.v19i0.47611","title":"Modeling and Short-Term Forecasts of Indicators for COVID-19 Outbreak in 25 Countries at the end of March","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Bangladesh Journal of Medical Science","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":16,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Exponential smoothing; Autoregressive integrated moving average; Outbreak; China; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Demography; Ranking (information retrieval); Medicine; Geography; Time series; Statistics; Mathematics; Disease; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Virology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001139145,0.0006642115,0.0003909363,0.0005878331,0.0001899678,0.0007481702,0.0004848119,0.0006117378,0.0004340233],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002393164,0.0002873769,0.0006215989,0.0004931382,0.000171629,0.0005632964,0.0003095773,0.0005679893,0.0001106754],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000732101,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006513567,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02853763,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01065667,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997638,0.00007918561,0.00002071227,0.00005488795,0.00002941147,0.00005199274],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9992736,0.0003450103,0.0001480836,0.00004016385,0.0001366306,0.00005657596],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001400495,0.00006738111,0.05571918,0.00003162375,0.00007119144,0.0001782921,0.00007368915,0.9359708,0.0006157811,0.0004300984,0.0006964481,0.006005324],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000009613437,0.00005715948,0.01262286,0.000007631226,0.00001873428,0.00001189989,0.00006177142,0.9864969,0.0002784566,0.0002101263,0.0002157028,0.000009148151],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9883727,0.0001693179,0.009376568,0.0002000671,0.00003418142,0.00002285659,0.0007989294,0.0000823493,0.0009430177],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9970516,0.00009095953,0.001710175,0.000007500197,0.000007138565,0.00001853126,0.0008435997,0.000003623906,0.0002668734],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02853763,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05674303,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2356088461177931,"score_gpt":0.4417373334841149,"score_spread":0.2061284873663218,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}