{"id":"W3038826502","doi":"10.1017/s0007123420000071","title":"Addressing Monotone Likelihood in Duration Modelling of Political Events","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"British Journal of Political Science","topic":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":19,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Covariate; Duration (music); Monotone polygon; Econometrics; Monotonic function; Maximum likelihood; Accelerated failure time model; Mathematics; Exposition (narrative); Statistics; Applied mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0331267,0.0007500041,0.001945101,0.001181847,0.0008324641,0.00321397,0.003027433,0.002537499,0.005671145],"category_scores_gemma":[0.1413277,0.0009936871,0.001369196,0.001328284,0.003825545,0.004144317,0.004568385,0.004081515,0.0003693737],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002350611,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001987529,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.007227188,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004453394,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9858925,0.01129709,0.0003976914,0.0009993394,0.0008167545,0.0005967212],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.8194277,0.1679837,0.006774272,0.002968418,0.001998714,0.0008473007],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001091912,0.00005025087,0.00887924,0.000203698,0.000111981,0.0003592402,0.001300298,0.3214154,0.0004029501,0.6423503,0.0009665831,0.02385096],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002155686,0.00006056966,0.001134277,0.00006554522,0.00002718672,0.0000945534,0.0001247982,0.6948799,0.0001939329,0.3017425,0.001622154,0.00003299941],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.0338553,0.000363465,0.9612569,0.001503805,0.00004594275,0.00007563923,0.0001346698,0.00008172789,0.002682635],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.883395,0.0006583102,0.1094646,0.000369345,0.0002231231,0.0004146942,0.0002520677,0.0001124129,0.005110285],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.0331267,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1751928,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1325506961041218,"score_gpt":0.3827949976764211,"score_spread":0.2502443015722993,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}