{"id":"W3039827448","doi":"10.5539/ijef.v12n8p52","title":"The Effect of the ECB’s Forward Guidance on Interest Rate Forecasts","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Journal of Economics and Finance","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Predictability; Yield curve; Interest rate; Economics; Forward rate; Econometrics; Interest rate swap; Surprise; Yield (engineering); Swap (finance); Monetary economics; Mathematics; Statistics; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.005573228,0.0004804472,0.0004278827,0.000506969,0.0003864876,0.002217977,0.0005610134,0.00163657,0.001072266],"category_scores_gemma":[0.05143931,0.0002155968,0.00026808,0.0005921414,0.0004313888,0.001265301,0.0007507535,0.001944123,0.0004413886],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001676065,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001700795,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.04406938,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01763398,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9974969,0.0009194065,0.0001425557,0.0003237281,0.0008245484,0.0002928525],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9551294,0.02726591,0.008544577,0.002116095,0.005535318,0.001408785],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.004636224,0.0005403096,0.3908484,0.000151491,0.000386542,0.001692163,0.001078457,0.3984729,0.01598295,0.01563698,0.01568402,0.1548896],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003429037,0.001548348,0.6150153,0.0001622785,0.0002618222,0.0004032774,0.001871527,0.3372507,0.01752619,0.008945825,0.01637584,0.0002959077],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9845137,0.00089988,0.00240201,0.002330363,0.0001844143,0.00001606272,0.0004358268,0.0002071191,0.009010638],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9983343,0.0001531754,0.0005094238,0.00014122,0.00003660127,0.000002511931,0.0002425777,0.00001818185,0.0005618547],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.04406938,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.08762574,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05336767853009186,"score_gpt":0.2331831236493561,"score_spread":0.1798154451192643,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}