{"id":"W3044267608","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res03","title":"Decomposing changes in first birth trends: Quantum, timing, or variance","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","topic":"Birth, Development, and Health","field":"Medicine","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades","keywords":"Variance (accounting); Statistics; Statistical physics; Mathematics; Physics; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003653969,0.0004071273,0.0005915034,0.002373076,0.0003106937,0.001626472,0.0005134492,0.0003693732,0.001722352],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01069938,0.0002547338,0.001078709,0.00392495,0.000942669,0.001574026,0.001132943,0.0006433152,0.0001708928],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007065836,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006949748,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01412727,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01241606,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9984835,0.0004648707,0.0001424684,0.0004375917,0.0002420062,0.000229581],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9929628,0.003715444,0.001665578,0.001009782,0.000405635,0.0002408011],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001296773,0.00005580011,0.9331324,0.00007787003,0.0006413669,0.00009800419,0.0007588641,0.007797348,0.0008013013,0.01023996,0.0007084031,0.04555902],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000006247042,0.00007763401,0.9644238,0.0000451634,0.0001043151,0.00005268914,0.0005856974,0.0207019,0.0002439621,0.01182573,0.001904304,0.00002863479],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9588031,0.001095317,0.03342732,0.0005054509,0.00009520475,0.00008225678,0.002268504,0.0001174754,0.003605446],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9937926,0.0003305263,0.003366655,0.00003551135,0.00005606884,0.00003247938,0.001796899,0.0000270762,0.0005622563],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01412727,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02809012,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2277060497271588,"score_gpt":0.4352974361739078,"score_spread":0.2075913864467489,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}