{"id":"W3044267608","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res03","title":"Decomposing changes in first birth trends: Quantum, timing, or variance","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","topic":"Birth, Development, and Health","field":"Medicine","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades","keywords":"Variance (accounting); Statistics; Statistical physics; Mathematics; Physics; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007963675,0.0001035435,0.0003016678,0.0005514208,0.0001090042,0.00001692847,0.0001162959,0.00009541739,0.0006931957],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000275736,0.00008802595,0.0000320502,0.001037837,0.00006249375,0.00007126094,0.00006430203,0.0003489355,0.00005945891],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001288611,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001813565,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0006798884,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001936239,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9982308,0.0001157442,0.0003579698,0.0003049283,0.0005866823,0.0004039013],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9992591,0.000102305,0.00008877473,0.0001922065,0.0001329335,0.0002247276],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.003909199,0.0007451099,0.8128656,0.004597142,0.00009293672,0.0002726141,0.01950548,0.0001024825,0.01415578,0.06883779,0.008136128,0.06677976],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002361879,0.001009621,0.957096,0.0008455603,0.000009756651,0.00001064478,0.0004144511,0.01584404,0.001018926,0.001195155,0.01998225,0.0002117566],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.949556,0.0007220765,0.0003151157,0.0385619,0.000164394,0.001043977,0.00001712118,0.0001174096,0.00950198],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9934465,0.00325533,0.002234038,0.0004694549,0.0001877859,0.00002216807,0.00003305801,0.00002622275,0.000325449],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1442304,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7590007,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2277060497271588,"score_gpt":0.4352974361739078,"score_spread":0.2075913864467489,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}