{"id":"W3084385406","doi":"10.1038/s43017-020-0088-0","title":"Burning embers: towards more transparent and robust climate-change risk assessments","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"review","venue":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","topic":"Environmental and Social Impact Assessments","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":67,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Regina","funders":"Agence Nationale de la Recherche; University of Cambridge; Natural Environment Research Council; Sight Research UK","keywords":"Climate change; Credibility; Expert elicitation; Environmental resource management; Environmental science; Political science; Geography; Geology; Meteorology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","research_integrity","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.0009994589,0.001597091,0.003576215,0.00008643497,0.0004962764,0.0001485053,0.0007651589,0.001243115,0.003454196],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00004534792,0.001246854,0.001112457,0.0003523382,0.0004224152,0.0005485055,0.001078528,0.003045952,0.002162814],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008887287,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002639201,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00009216915,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00002017083,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9931476,0.001004928,0.001519078,0.001851643,0.001333076,0.001143752],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9967942,0.00009543591,0.001356837,0.0008985561,0.000002271394,0.0008527567],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00000658216,0.0001794621,0.001057115,0.002518957,0.0001426025,0.0000597656,0.0002972753,0.00002500045,0.000001503276,0.000006474651,0.0003243406,0.9953809],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003385636,0.0001989151,0.003841839,0.004067441,0.001820134,0.00003483941,0.00005606109,0.00005045209,0.000001043189,0.00001196963,0.9884257,0.001153066],"study_design_candidate":"design_other","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"review","genre_gemma":"review","genre_scores_codex":[0.0000827858,0.9924374,0.0001388794,0.0001167479,0.0003441817,0.004158719,0.0004322019,0.00007545442,0.002213612],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.00008184697,0.9930657,0.004316285,0.000587964,0.0003908082,0.0007766054,0.0003762819,0.0001839097,0.0002206211],"genre_candidate":"review","genre_consensus":"review","teacher_disagreement_score":0.9942278,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9996777,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.08484418068033041,"score_gpt":0.3673880188648128,"score_spread":0.2825438381844824,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}