{"id":"W3085810308","doi":"10.1111/obes.12431","title":"The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID‐19‐Induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area*","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":8,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"HEC Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Pessimism; Shock (circulatory); Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Inflation (cosmology); Economics; Econometrics; Production (economics); Industrial production; Monetary economics; Macroeconomics; Physics; Medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001477269,0.0002778232,0.0007961214,0.0001059361,0.0001607907,0.0001125153,0.0005689966,0.0001587885,0.0001593278],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003424153,0.0001853502,0.0002408972,0.00008790693,0.0002703941,0.00001038369,0.0002350379,0.0004382946,6.805364e-7],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001317341,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002342235,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001869969,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0004919688,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9978743,0.000167561,0.001268711,0.0004076845,0.00004329498,0.0002384566],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9910682,0.006394596,0.001552083,0.0008192959,0.00009439883,0.00007139979],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003022435,0.0005615265,0.02108095,0.001346258,0.0006134938,0.00001084383,0.004126043,0.01349236,0.00000479353,0.9499021,0.005263587,0.003295836],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001440639,0.0008596743,0.05744543,0.0002671466,0.00009714424,0.000005653817,0.002573601,0.5246613,0.0000126746,0.3983692,0.01355122,0.0007163387],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9837589,0.001029258,0.001968074,0.001497027,0.0003366287,0.00078316,0.005080175,0.00000340665,0.00554335],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9932351,0.005852839,0.0004800329,0.00009510761,0.00002482358,0.00006045502,0.0001553688,0.00002191002,0.0000743378],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5515329,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7558361,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0331084242503427,"score_gpt":0.2605170166861094,"score_spread":0.2274085924357667,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}