{"id":"W3087164092","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3537368","title":"A DSA Algorithm for Mortality Forecasting","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"","keywords":"Computer science; Econometrics; Algorithm; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001551769,0.0007446429,0.001271785,0.001328364,0.0006706783,0.001083011,0.001285761,0.001297939,0.004754676],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005583088,0.0005454489,0.0006916404,0.001337168,0.0003429952,0.001080285,0.0009330409,0.001388208,0.00191665],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006344649,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001510291,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01008242,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.006864932,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995255,0.0001558401,0.00005493765,0.0001318722,0.00009532081,0.00003651865],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9982826,0.0009622712,0.0000605382,0.0001375991,0.0004937501,0.00006323069],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001666888,0.00007689527,0.001808167,0.00005512964,0.00008847081,0.00006012823,0.00004253325,0.4394535,0.001913622,0.006987813,0.005584278,0.5437628],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000008622276,0.00001044726,0.0001172664,0.000003607834,0.000006433126,0.00001291326,0.00000374757,0.9964179,0.000258511,0.002380284,0.0007763917,0.000003830767],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.008683713,0.0003564915,0.9885508,0.0002076387,0.0001333375,0.00004388031,0.0001711421,0.0008694617,0.0009835798],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.1953894,0.0004325279,0.798376,0.000200775,0.0002006001,0.0002282662,0.0008316396,0.0001325264,0.004208253],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01008242,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02004749,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0512558257093354,"score_gpt":0.3157046319230709,"score_spread":0.2644488062137355,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}