{"id":"W3087920976","doi":"10.5539/ibr.v13n10p108","title":"The Success of Business Forecasting: Comparisons across Industries, Countries and Time","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Business Research","topic":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Harvard Business School","keywords":"Manufacturing; German; Relevance (law); Economics; Business; Marketing; Industrial organization; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaresearch"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003148641,0.0001102179,0.0002116774,0.0001288193,0.0006730887,0.0008561385,0.001795777,0.00008249831,0.0001725614],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01208968,0.00007127599,0.00002828189,0.002831972,0.001185586,0.0003003847,0.001016413,0.0003101894,0.00008522943],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00003448788,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002297701,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0003176491,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00004765278,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9964599,0.0001224056,0.0005813708,0.0003819215,0.002137917,0.0003165013],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9885908,0.003510539,0.0002287289,0.000346026,0.007217213,0.0001067208],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000779168,0.000215583,0.2685262,0.00006663013,0.0001174566,0.00002551439,0.001700059,0.00120471,0.001735557,0.04846149,0.594467,0.08270063],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003408566,0.00004343772,0.1651015,0.00006980922,0.000003702427,0.00002342582,0.0005263838,0.03107483,0.001496045,0.008847538,0.7923093,0.0001631587],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":"not_applicable","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8010839,0.0003499157,0.01594145,0.1706786,0.0002753651,0.0007116276,0.0004806594,0.0001153593,0.01036314],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9977679,0.00008093705,0.0005580104,0.0001119937,0.0001868087,0.00004672955,0.00002009812,0.00001262833,0.001214934],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1978423,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9962319,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4049196909370765,"score_gpt":0.4887109331442283,"score_spread":0.08379124220715184,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}