{"id":"W3090711554","doi":"10.1007/s11606-020-06244-9","title":"Expert Forecasts of COVID-19 Vaccine Development Timelines","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"letter","venue":"Journal of General Internal Medicine","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":14,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"McGill University Health Centre; Montreal Children's Hospital; McGill University","funders":"McGill University","keywords":"Medicine; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Timeline; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Virology; MEDLINE; Betacoronavirus; Coronavirus Infections; Internal medicine; Outbreak; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Disease; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01205197,0.0005404462,0.000676663,0.00192526,0.0009319036,0.003740719,0.001031241,0.0096608,0.01984991],"category_scores_gemma":[0.09836765,0.0004283991,0.0007226497,0.001512404,0.0008777702,0.004011276,0.001327811,0.01024414,0.008042365],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.004295556,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.005517068,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01532639,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01731321,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9944075,0.002472412,0.0005794707,0.0003666625,0.001684847,0.000489156],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9282904,0.04650781,0.004305266,0.001113086,0.0150485,0.004734833],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001227074,0.0000219996,0.001910928,0.00006479289,0.000009774664,0.000218863,0.00007951329,0.001041958,0.0001313959,0.008052898,0.9742303,0.01411487],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001896799,0.0001104305,0.008776432,0.0009097069,0.00004701241,0.0004284838,0.0009544191,0.01385348,0.0005733339,0.04507279,0.9289615,0.0001226858],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":"not_applicable","genre_codex":"commentary","genre_gemma":"commentary","genre_scores_codex":[0.001340878,0.001337073,0.0008503937,0.9719414,0.01106775,0.0000139571,0.001490155,0.0000712449,0.01188729],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.1155462,0.01259391,0.007077468,0.7110321,0.1043118,0.0002597778,0.003698126,0.0003326327,0.04514809],"genre_candidate":"commentary","genre_consensus":"commentary","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01984991,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.06640464,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3281524471564427,"score_gpt":0.458924941158298,"score_spread":0.1307724940018553,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}