{"id":"W3092442805","doi":"10.1029/2020ef001526","title":"Numerically Bounded Linguistic Probability Schemes Are Unlikely to Communicate Uncertainty Effectively","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Earth s Future","topic":"Risk Perception and Management","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":13,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Defence Research and Development Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Probabilistic logic; Bounded function; Interpretation (philosophy); Attribution; Scheme (mathematics); Event (particle physics); Key (lock); Computer science; Linguistics; Epistemology; Mathematical economics; Theoretical computer science; Psychology; Mathematics; Artificial intelligence; Social psychology; Philosophy; Computer security; Physics; Astrophysics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":["metaresearch"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.05764378,0.000818566,0.0009986046,0.002220354,0.002722072,0.007459397,0.003888869,0.005220445,0.008149894],"category_scores_gemma":[0.2566797,0.0008347144,0.0009260389,0.001261897,0.02029906,0.01909,0.007995181,0.007324103,0.001970814],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002949909,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002705268,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001473516,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0009901263,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9513959,0.0344556,0.002960928,0.003479648,0.007119104,0.0005888398],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.7784771,0.1583476,0.01902575,0.02917612,0.01343513,0.001538334],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":"methods","domain_candidate":"methods","domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001420906,0.00003160802,0.001141949,0.0002516545,0.00005559732,0.00008629973,0.003253824,0.004987249,0.0007766229,0.9477432,0.004221183,0.03730858],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00004222592,0.00004886665,0.0004185111,0.0002493125,0.0000290235,0.00009514705,0.0004967187,0.01574794,0.0006939129,0.9705811,0.01153316,0.00006413404],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.0348222,0.001198336,0.8570599,0.04597418,0.001437927,0.0002338371,0.0003129259,0.0006739921,0.05828674],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8193522,0.0005222585,0.171817,0.004640255,0.0005616636,0.000436581,0.00008930393,0.000158983,0.002421755],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.9423562,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3048531,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03828302460116933,"score_gpt":0.3112089869765868,"score_spread":0.2729259623754174,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}